This is the final report on qualitative and quantitative research conducted on policy measures towards a final status solution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The research included 6 focus groups and 2 surveys among Israeli West Bank settlers and Palestinians in the West Bank.
The research aimed to map current attitudes towards the conflict in general, and track attitudes towards evacuation-compensation option for settlers, compared to past studies[1]. In addition, for the first time in Macro’s work, the current study examined an alternative solution to the traditional two-state plans, offering settlers the option of remaining in their homes, under Palestinian sovereignty as permanent residents.
In general, the two populations experience vastly different realities in their daily life. Among the settlers, a very large majority view life positively: 76% consider the quality of life in their settlement high, and 64% of the settlers believe Israel is headed in the right direction in general. By contrast, 58% of the Palestinians believe that Palestine is headed in the wrong direction.
Regarding their ideal vision for the future, settlers and Palestinians expressed opinions diametrically opposed to one another. Nearly half, 46%, of settlers believe that annexation is Israel's long-term goal,[2] and 23% believe Israel’s goal is to retreat from some of the West Bank (WB) territories. One-fifth (20%) do not know what Israel’s goal is regarding the conflict. Among Palestinians, 67% said that all settlers must leave Palestine in any future agreement. However, 20% of Palestinians accept the idea that settlers can stay if they live as residents in an independent Palestinian state and accept its sovereignty.
Considering a scenario in which they would receive compensation if they evacuate their settlements by choice (an approach known as “evacuation-compensation”), only 27% of the Jewish-Israeli settlers surveyed indicated that they would be willing to consider leaving the WB. This is consistent with the findings presented in previous surveys from 2013 and 2012. In the current survey, settlers stated that they would prefer to relocate either to the Jerusalem area (38%), the center of Israel (22%), or the settlement blocs (15%).
When presented with an alternative solution in which settlers could remain in Palestine as part of a mutually signed agreement, living under Palestinian sovereignty as permanent residents while keeping Israeli citizenship, Palestinians showed more support relative to settlers. When the scenario was first introduced, 85% of the settlers opposed the idea in general, it compared to 58% of Palestinians. In addition, only 11% of settlers said they would support it, compared to 39% of the Palestinians.
Different policy provisions were then presented to the two groups, to test whether they would increase support above the initial level. Among settlers, statements about different security arrangements were received with mixed results and did not significantly improve support for the proposed agreement. By contrast, the idea that a rabbi they trust would encourage settlers to stay in the West Bank as residents was more effective in raising support than any other incentive item. Among Palestinians, the relevant policies tested drew stronger support – including a majority for several. These included: evacuation of settlers with a history of violence or settlements that disrupt travel routes (78%), the option for open borders between the countries while introducing different types of coordination (69%), the continuation of security cooperation while banning the right of the Israeli military to enter Palestine unless by agreement (63%), and the option to evacuate settlers who break Palestinian law (58%). Statements regarding the Palestinian obligation to protect the security of the settlers were somewhat more controversial. However, nearly half of the respondents said it would be acceptable for settlers to hire private security guards.
Following the introduction of the policy provisions, respondents were asked once again to state their support for such an agreement. While support among Palestinians rose to a majority of 59% of the respondents, support among settlers increased only slightly, to 16%. Among settlers who reside outside the main settlement blocs, support only increased from 10% to 13%, remaining very low. In addition, when asked about the impact of having the option to continue living in the West Bank under Palestinian sovereignty compared to a forced evacuation scenario, nearly half – 46% - said it decreases their support for the two state solution, while only 10% mentioned it increases their support.
